Main Article Content
Abstract
Abstract: The aim of this research is to test and analyze the impact of crude palm oil (CPO) exports in the three countries producing and the world's largest exporters of CPO, namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Observations were carried out on five independent variables namely Production, Exchange Rate, Inflation, International Prices and World CPO Consumption with the dependent variable being CPO exports. As for the observation period from 2008 to 2022 in the final annual report. The study used quantitative descriptive analysis of panel data regression with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to determine long-term and short-term effects. Statistical data processing utility using the eviews10 application. The results of data analysis show that production, inflation and prices in the long term have an influence on exports, while exchange rate and consumption have no influence. In the short term, production and consumption have an influence while exchange rates, inflation and prices have no influence on exports.
Keywords: CPO, Export, VECM
Article Details
References
- DAFTAR PUSTAKA
- Aimon, H., Kurniadi, A. P., Sentosa, S. U., & Rahman, N. A. (2023). Production, Consumption, Export and Carbon Emission for Coal Commodities: Cases of Indonesia and Australia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(5), 484–492. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14798
- Akay, N., Gündüz, Ö., & Gündüz, S. (2020). The Factors Affecting Textile Production Amounts of Leading Countries in Textile Export: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Nicel Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1–13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/nicel/issue/58814/805763
- Akpan, O. D., Anwana, E., & Etim, S. M. (2023). Determinants of Agricultural Export and Trade Liberalization in Nigeria. E-Proceedings of the Faculty of Agriculture International Conference, 2016, 342–348. https://journals.unizik.edu.ng/faic/article/view/1951
- Aliraqi, A., & Salih, Z. (2022). Inflation’s Impact on Sudan Exports 1990-2020: An ARDL Approach. World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 18(6), 707–727. https://doi.org/10.47556/J.WJEMSD.18.6.2022.2
- Arasim, D.A., & Karia, A. A. (2015). Identifying and Forecasting the Factors that Derive CPO Prices in Malaysia Using NARX Model. International Journal of Case Studies, 4(2015–12), 04–14. http://www.casestudiesjournal.com
- Arifin, F. (2022). Analisis Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Sektor Non Migas Asia Tenggara Periode 2010-2019. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Global Masa Kini, 13(1), 30–40. https://doi.org/10.36982/jiegmk.v13i1.2264
- Baker, M. M., & Yuya, B. A. (2020). Determinant of Sesame Export Performance in Ethiopia: A Panel Gravity Model Application. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 8(3), 714–720. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v8i3.714-720.3219
- Braha, K., Qineti, A., Cupák, A. & Lazorčáková, E. (2017). Determinants of Albanian Agricultural Export: The Gravity Model Approach. AGRIS On-Line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol.9,No.2. https://doi.org/10.7160/aol.2017.090201.
- Carbaugh, R. J. (2008). Globalization and the Future of the World Economy. Routledge.
- Chansuchai, P. (2017). Factor affecting the palm oil price in Thailand. The EUrASEANs: Journal on Global Socio-Economic Dynamics, 4(5), 37–46.
- Dalango, D. (2020). Determinants of Export Performance in Ethiopia (Time Series Analysis). European Journal of Business and Management, 12(28), 6–16. https://doi.org/10.7176/ejbm/12-28-02
- Dewi, R., & Nawawi, Z. M. (2022). Analisis Perkembangan Ekspor Impor Kelompok Barang Ekonomi Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2016-2020. Jurnal Pamator : Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Trunojoyo, 15(1), 137–145. https://doi.org/10.21107/pamator.v15i1.14283
- Dudzinski, J., & Knap, R. (2022). Price, volume and level of economic development as determinants of export value in countries and regions. Procedia Computer Science, 207, 3865–3874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.448
- Ebadi, A., & Ebadi, A. (2015). How the Export Volume Is Affected by Determinant Factors in a Developing Country? Research in World Economy, 6(1), 143–150. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v6n1p143
- Espoir, M. L. (2020). Determinant of export diversification: An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 9(7), 130–144.
- Fatha, R. K. (2017). Analisis Permintaan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 6(1), 75–85.
- Gujarati.D. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed).
- Hamzah, R. N., & Santoso, I. H. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Produksi, Harga Ekspor Crude Palm Oil, Nilai Tukar IDR/USD Terhadap Volume Ekspor Crude Palm Oil Indonesia 2012-2016. Economie: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 1(2), 183. https://doi.org/10.30742/economie.v1i2.1131
- Hassan, M. S., Kausar, A., & Arshed, N. (2022). Investigating Export Determinants: A Time Series Evidence From Canada. SAGE Open, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221101037
- Khalid, N., Hamidi, H. N. A., Thinagar, S., & Marwan, N. F. (2018). Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia: An econometric approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 52(3), 263–278. https://doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2018-5203-19
- Komalasari, A. (2009). Analisis Tentang Pelaksanaan Plant Layout dalam Usaha Meningkatkan Efisiensi Produksi.
- Kusumawardani, M. O. (2023). Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Komoditi Ekspor di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2020. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 126. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v7i1.714
- Lee, C.-W., & Huruta, A. D. (2019). The nexus between Indonesia’s exchange rate and the world crude palm oil price. International Entrepreneurship Review, 5(3), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.15678/ier.2019.0503.03
- Lestari, D., & Oktavilia, S. (2020). Analysis of Palm Oil Price in Southeast Asia. AFEBI Economic and Finance Review, 5(2), 63. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.47312/aefr.v5i02.494.
- Lotfi, B., & Karim, M. (2016). Competitiveness Determinants of Moroccan Exports: Quantity-Based Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(7), 140. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n7p140
- Mankiw, G, N. (2023). Makroekonomi (Edisi ke d). Jakarta: Penerbit Erlangga.
- Marbun, L. (2015). PENGARUH PRODUKSI, KURS DAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) TERHADAP EKSPOR KAYU LAPIS Economics Development Analysis Journal. 4(2), 129–136. http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/edaj
- Marzouk, M., & Oukhallou, Y. (2016). Determinants of Export Performance in Tanzania. Journal of Economics Library, 3(3), 373–381. www.kspjournals.org
- Miao, M., Liu, H., & Chen, J. (2021). Factors affecting fluctuations in China’s aquatic product exports to Japan, the USA, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and the EU. Aquaculture International, 29(6), 2507–2533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-021-00761-y
- Nguyen, V. C., & Do, T. T. (2020). Impact of exchange rate shocks, inward FDI and import on export performance: A cointegration analysis. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 163–171. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO4.163
- Özgur Uysal, & Abdulakadir Said Mohamoud. (2018). Determinants of Export Performance in East Africa Countries. Chinese Business Review, 17(4), 168–178. https://doi.org/10.17265/1537-1506/2018.04.002
- Panggabean, P., Heriberta, H., & Hodijah, S. (2022). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia ke India. Jurnal Ekonomi Aktual, 2(1), 33–40. https://doi.org/10.53867/jea.v2i1.62
- Priyati, R. Y. (2018). Determinants of global palm oil demand: A gravity approach. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(2), 148–164. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art4
- Purba, M. L., Nainggolan, Z., & Sihotang, J. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi, Nilai Tukar Dan Harga Internasional Terhadap Ekspor Tembakau Indonesia Tahun 1990 – 2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 2(2), 18–28. https://doi.org/10.36655/jeb.v2i2.551
- Ridwannulloh, R., & Sunaryati, S. (2018). Determinants Of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil Export: Gravity Model Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 19(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.19.2.5004.
- Rizal, N., Saifuddin, S. A., Abd Rahim, S. H. A., Mohd Nazri, N., Ab Aziz, M. S., & Zainoddin, A. I. (2023). The Macroeconomic Factors on Malaysia’s Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 13(3). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v13-i3/16474
- Rosita, R., Haryadi, H., & Amril, A. (2014). Determinan Ekspor CPO Indonesia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 1(4), 183. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v1i4.1714
- Saeyang, R., & Nissapa, A. (2022). Factors affecting revealed symmetric comparative advantage of crude palm oil exports of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology, 44(1), 32–39. https://doi.org/10.14456/sjst-psu.2022.6
- Salisu, A. A., & Sikiru, A. A. (2021). Palm oil price–exchange rate nexus in Indonesia and Malaysia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 24(2), 169–180. https://doi.org/10.21098/BEMP.V24I2.1620
- Sandry, H. B., & Malik, N. (2017). Analisis Harga Internasional, Nilai Tukar, Dan Konsumsi Kako Amerika Terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 1(3), 340–351. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v1i3.6159
- Santosa, R., Haryadi, H., & Artis, D. (2022). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia ke Uni Eropa. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 10(1), 63–70. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v10i1.14212
- Santoso, I. H. (2019). Statistika II. Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya Press.
- Sari, L. P., & Sishadiyati, S. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (Cpo) Indonesia Ke Uni Eropa. Sebatik, 26(1), 26–31. https://doi.org/10.46984/sebatik.v26i1.1867
- Songsiengchai, P., Sidique, S. F., Djama, M., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2018). A cointegration analysis of crude palm oil price in Thailand. E3S Web of Conferences, 52, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185200035
- Tandra, H., & Suroso, A. I. (2023). The determinant, efficiency, and potential of Indonesian palm oil downstream export to the global market. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2189671
- Yee, L. S., WaiMun, H., Zhengyi, T., Ying, L. J., & Xin, K. K. (2016). Determinants of Export: Empirical Study in Malaysia. Journal of International Business and Economics, 4(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.15640/jibe.v4n1a6
- Ziaei, S. M., & Ali, I. (2021). Commodity exports and macroeconomic performance: The case of palm oil in Malaysia. Cogent Economics and Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1901388
References
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Aimon, H., Kurniadi, A. P., Sentosa, S. U., & Rahman, N. A. (2023). Production, Consumption, Export and Carbon Emission for Coal Commodities: Cases of Indonesia and Australia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(5), 484–492. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14798
Akay, N., Gündüz, Ö., & Gündüz, S. (2020). The Factors Affecting Textile Production Amounts of Leading Countries in Textile Export: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Nicel Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1–13. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/nicel/issue/58814/805763
Akpan, O. D., Anwana, E., & Etim, S. M. (2023). Determinants of Agricultural Export and Trade Liberalization in Nigeria. E-Proceedings of the Faculty of Agriculture International Conference, 2016, 342–348. https://journals.unizik.edu.ng/faic/article/view/1951
Aliraqi, A., & Salih, Z. (2022). Inflation’s Impact on Sudan Exports 1990-2020: An ARDL Approach. World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 18(6), 707–727. https://doi.org/10.47556/J.WJEMSD.18.6.2022.2
Arasim, D.A., & Karia, A. A. (2015). Identifying and Forecasting the Factors that Derive CPO Prices in Malaysia Using NARX Model. International Journal of Case Studies, 4(2015–12), 04–14. http://www.casestudiesjournal.com
Arifin, F. (2022). Analisis Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Sektor Non Migas Asia Tenggara Periode 2010-2019. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Global Masa Kini, 13(1), 30–40. https://doi.org/10.36982/jiegmk.v13i1.2264
Baker, M. M., & Yuya, B. A. (2020). Determinant of Sesame Export Performance in Ethiopia: A Panel Gravity Model Application. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 8(3), 714–720. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v8i3.714-720.3219
Braha, K., Qineti, A., Cupák, A. & Lazorčáková, E. (2017). Determinants of Albanian Agricultural Export: The Gravity Model Approach. AGRIS On-Line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol.9,No.2. https://doi.org/10.7160/aol.2017.090201.
Carbaugh, R. J. (2008). Globalization and the Future of the World Economy. Routledge.
Chansuchai, P. (2017). Factor affecting the palm oil price in Thailand. The EUrASEANs: Journal on Global Socio-Economic Dynamics, 4(5), 37–46.
Dalango, D. (2020). Determinants of Export Performance in Ethiopia (Time Series Analysis). European Journal of Business and Management, 12(28), 6–16. https://doi.org/10.7176/ejbm/12-28-02
Dewi, R., & Nawawi, Z. M. (2022). Analisis Perkembangan Ekspor Impor Kelompok Barang Ekonomi Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2016-2020. Jurnal Pamator : Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Trunojoyo, 15(1), 137–145. https://doi.org/10.21107/pamator.v15i1.14283
Dudzinski, J., & Knap, R. (2022). Price, volume and level of economic development as determinants of export value in countries and regions. Procedia Computer Science, 207, 3865–3874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.448
Ebadi, A., & Ebadi, A. (2015). How the Export Volume Is Affected by Determinant Factors in a Developing Country? Research in World Economy, 6(1), 143–150. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v6n1p143
Espoir, M. L. (2020). Determinant of export diversification: An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 9(7), 130–144.
Fatha, R. K. (2017). Analisis Permintaan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 6(1), 75–85.
Gujarati.D. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed).
Hamzah, R. N., & Santoso, I. H. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Produksi, Harga Ekspor Crude Palm Oil, Nilai Tukar IDR/USD Terhadap Volume Ekspor Crude Palm Oil Indonesia 2012-2016. Economie: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 1(2), 183. https://doi.org/10.30742/economie.v1i2.1131
Hassan, M. S., Kausar, A., & Arshed, N. (2022). Investigating Export Determinants: A Time Series Evidence From Canada. SAGE Open, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221101037
Khalid, N., Hamidi, H. N. A., Thinagar, S., & Marwan, N. F. (2018). Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia: An econometric approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 52(3), 263–278. https://doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2018-5203-19
Komalasari, A. (2009). Analisis Tentang Pelaksanaan Plant Layout dalam Usaha Meningkatkan Efisiensi Produksi.
Kusumawardani, M. O. (2023). Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Komoditi Ekspor di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2020. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 126. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v7i1.714
Lee, C.-W., & Huruta, A. D. (2019). The nexus between Indonesia’s exchange rate and the world crude palm oil price. International Entrepreneurship Review, 5(3), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.15678/ier.2019.0503.03
Lestari, D., & Oktavilia, S. (2020). Analysis of Palm Oil Price in Southeast Asia. AFEBI Economic and Finance Review, 5(2), 63. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.47312/aefr.v5i02.494.
Lotfi, B., & Karim, M. (2016). Competitiveness Determinants of Moroccan Exports: Quantity-Based Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(7), 140. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n7p140
Mankiw, G, N. (2023). Makroekonomi (Edisi ke d). Jakarta: Penerbit Erlangga.
Marbun, L. (2015). PENGARUH PRODUKSI, KURS DAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) TERHADAP EKSPOR KAYU LAPIS Economics Development Analysis Journal. 4(2), 129–136. http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/edaj
Marzouk, M., & Oukhallou, Y. (2016). Determinants of Export Performance in Tanzania. Journal of Economics Library, 3(3), 373–381. www.kspjournals.org
Miao, M., Liu, H., & Chen, J. (2021). Factors affecting fluctuations in China’s aquatic product exports to Japan, the USA, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and the EU. Aquaculture International, 29(6), 2507–2533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-021-00761-y
Nguyen, V. C., & Do, T. T. (2020). Impact of exchange rate shocks, inward FDI and import on export performance: A cointegration analysis. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 163–171. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO4.163
Özgur Uysal, & Abdulakadir Said Mohamoud. (2018). Determinants of Export Performance in East Africa Countries. Chinese Business Review, 17(4), 168–178. https://doi.org/10.17265/1537-1506/2018.04.002
Panggabean, P., Heriberta, H., & Hodijah, S. (2022). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia ke India. Jurnal Ekonomi Aktual, 2(1), 33–40. https://doi.org/10.53867/jea.v2i1.62
Priyati, R. Y. (2018). Determinants of global palm oil demand: A gravity approach. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(2), 148–164. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art4
Purba, M. L., Nainggolan, Z., & Sihotang, J. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi, Nilai Tukar Dan Harga Internasional Terhadap Ekspor Tembakau Indonesia Tahun 1990 – 2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 2(2), 18–28. https://doi.org/10.36655/jeb.v2i2.551
Ridwannulloh, R., & Sunaryati, S. (2018). Determinants Of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil Export: Gravity Model Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 19(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.19.2.5004.
Rizal, N., Saifuddin, S. A., Abd Rahim, S. H. A., Mohd Nazri, N., Ab Aziz, M. S., & Zainoddin, A. I. (2023). The Macroeconomic Factors on Malaysia’s Future Crude Palm Oil (FCPO). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 13(3). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v13-i3/16474
Rosita, R., Haryadi, H., & Amril, A. (2014). Determinan Ekspor CPO Indonesia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 1(4), 183. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v1i4.1714
Saeyang, R., & Nissapa, A. (2022). Factors affecting revealed symmetric comparative advantage of crude palm oil exports of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology, 44(1), 32–39. https://doi.org/10.14456/sjst-psu.2022.6
Salisu, A. A., & Sikiru, A. A. (2021). Palm oil price–exchange rate nexus in Indonesia and Malaysia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 24(2), 169–180. https://doi.org/10.21098/BEMP.V24I2.1620
Sandry, H. B., & Malik, N. (2017). Analisis Harga Internasional, Nilai Tukar, Dan Konsumsi Kako Amerika Terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Kakao Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 1(3), 340–351. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v1i3.6159
Santosa, R., Haryadi, H., & Artis, D. (2022). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia ke Uni Eropa. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 10(1), 63–70. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v10i1.14212
Santoso, I. H. (2019). Statistika II. Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya Press.
Sari, L. P., & Sishadiyati, S. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (Cpo) Indonesia Ke Uni Eropa. Sebatik, 26(1), 26–31. https://doi.org/10.46984/sebatik.v26i1.1867
Songsiengchai, P., Sidique, S. F., Djama, M., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2018). A cointegration analysis of crude palm oil price in Thailand. E3S Web of Conferences, 52, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185200035
Tandra, H., & Suroso, A. I. (2023). The determinant, efficiency, and potential of Indonesian palm oil downstream export to the global market. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2189671
Yee, L. S., WaiMun, H., Zhengyi, T., Ying, L. J., & Xin, K. K. (2016). Determinants of Export: Empirical Study in Malaysia. Journal of International Business and Economics, 4(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.15640/jibe.v4n1a6
Ziaei, S. M., & Ali, I. (2021). Commodity exports and macroeconomic performance: The case of palm oil in Malaysia. Cogent Economics and Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1901388