The effect of inflation and political stability on the Rupiah exchange rate in the foreign exchange market
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and political stability on the rupiah exchange rate in the foreign exchange market. Using a quantitative approach with secondary time-series data from 2008-2022, sourced from the International Monetary Fund, Bank for International Settlements, and World Bank, the research investigates how these variables influence the rupiah exchange rate. The results of simultaneous parameter testing indicate that inflation and political stability together have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. However, partial parameter testing shows that the current account variable has a negative and insignificant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. The inflation variable is positive but also has an insignificant effect, whereas the political stability variable is positive and significantly influences the rupiah exchange rate in the foreign exchange market. The model’s adjusted R-squared value is 0.384204, meaning that the inflation and political stability variables together explain 38.4% of the changes in the rupiah exchange rate, with the remaining 61.6% explained by other variables outside the model. This study highlights the importance of political stability in influencing currency exchange rates and suggests that further research should explore additional factors affecting the rupiah's movement in the foreign exchange market
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