Analysis of the influence of economic factors on tax revenue in 1993–2022
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of economic factors on tax revenue in Indonesia during the period 1993-2022. The method used is multiple linear regression analysis to identify the relationship between the dependent variable (tax revenue) and the independent variables (Gross Domestic Product, inflation, unemployment rate, and exchange rate). The results showed that GDP has a positive and significant influence on tax revenue, where each increase in GDP by one unit will increase tax revenue by 0.213 units. In contrast, inflation shows an insignificant negative effect, while the unemployment rate has a negative effect and is close to significance. This study brings novelty by enhancing the understanding of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tax revenues. The advantages of this study lie in the use of comprehensive data spanning almost three decades, allowing for a robust analysis of long-term trends. However, this study has limitations, including the exclusion of other potential variables that may affect tax revenue, as well as the reliance on annual data, which may overlook short-term fluctuations. For future research, it is recommended to consider additional variables such as tax policy and international conditions, as well as using higher-frequency data to capture more granular insights into the factors influencing tax revenue
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