STABILITAS PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA: PERAN TRANSAKSI DIGITAL DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI GLOBAL
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Penelitian ini menganalisis stabilitas permintaan uang di Indonesia periode 2015–2025 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dengan mengintegrasikan variabel Indeks Produksi Industri (IPI), inflasi, transaksi uang elektronik (e-money), dan Indeks Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Global (EPU). Hasil uji kointegrasi Johansen mengkonfirmasi adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang. IPI berpengaruh positif signifikan, inflasi dan EPU berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sementara e-money terbukti mensubstitusi uang fisik. Uji CUSUM mengkonfirmasi stabilitas struktural fungsi permintaan uang, meskipun terdapat gangguan varians pada 2019–2020 akibat pandemi Covid-19. Temuan ini menegaskan relevansi kebijakan moneter berbasis agregat moneter di Indonesia.
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